{
  "$schema": "./asia-defense.schema.json",
  "meta": {
    "title": "亞太鄰國國防預算對照",
    "subtitle": "2025 年度（SIPRI 4 月公布資料）",
    "compiled_at": "2026-05-24",
    "primary_source": "SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, April 2026; SIPRI Fact Sheet 2025",
    "primary_source_url": "https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex",
    "fact_sheet_url": "https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/2604_milex_2025.pdf",
    "release_date": "2026-04-27",
    "notes": [
      "金額為美元（current prices and exchange rates），變動率為 constant 2024 USD 實質變動。",
      "SIPRI 採用 NATO 定義，包含現役軍人、退撫、軍方研發、軍援、軍方科技活動等。",
      "各國國防部官方公布數字常與 SIPRI 有 10–20% 差距（如澳洲官方以 NATO 法計為 2.8% GDP，SIPRI 為 1.9%）。本表以 SIPRI 為主要基準以利國際比較。",
      "中國數字為 SIPRI 推估，官方公布通常低於此值。"
    ]
  },
  "countries": [
    {
      "rank_global": 2,
      "name_zh": "中國",
      "name_en": "China",
      "expenditure_usd_billion": 336,
      "expenditure_twd_trillion": 10.75,
      "gdp_share": 1.7,
      "yoy_change_real": 7.4,
      "note": "31 年連續成長；推動軍事現代化，反貪腐運動未影響支出"
    },
    {
      "rank_global": 5,
      "name_zh": "印度",
      "name_en": "India",
      "expenditure_usd_billion": 92.1,
      "expenditure_twd_trillion": 2.95,
      "gdp_share": 2.3,
      "yoy_change_real": 8.9,
      "note": "面對中印邊境、巴基斯坦多重壓力；2025/5 印巴衝突後加碼"
    },
    {
      "rank_global": 9,
      "name_zh": "日本",
      "name_en": "Japan",
      "expenditure_usd_billion": 62.2,
      "expenditure_twd_trillion": 1.99,
      "gdp_share": 1.4,
      "yoy_change_real": 9.7,
      "note": "1958 年以來最高 GDP 占比；2027 達 2% 目標；採購長程巡弋飛彈與 ISR"
    },
    {
      "rank_global": 14,
      "name_zh": "南韓",
      "name_en": "South Korea",
      "expenditure_usd_billion": 47.8,
      "expenditure_twd_trillion": 1.53,
      "gdp_share": 2.6,
      "yoy_change_real": 2.6,
      "note": "持續投資三軸嚇阻系統（飛彈防禦、預先打擊、報復能力）對抗北韓"
    },
    {
      "rank_global": 17,
      "name_zh": "澳洲",
      "name_en": "Australia",
      "expenditure_usd_billion": 49,
      "expenditure_twd_trillion": 1.57,
      "gdp_share": 1.9,
      "gdp_share_nato_method": 2.8,
      "yoy_change_real": null,
      "note": "SIPRI 為 1.9%、官方 NATO 算法為 2.8%；目標 2033 達 3%；AUKUS 核動力潛艦"
    },
    {
      "rank_global": 23,
      "name_zh": "台灣",
      "name_en": "Taiwan",
      "expenditure_usd_billion": 18.2,
      "expenditure_twd_trillion": 0.58,
      "gdp_share": 2.1,
      "yoy_change_real": 14.0,
      "note": "1988 年以來最大年增幅；面對共軍環島演習常態化；7,800 億特別預算 2026 起執行"
    },
    {
      "rank_global": 34,
      "name_zh": "新加坡",
      "name_en": "Singapore",
      "expenditure_usd_billion": 14.0,
      "expenditure_twd_trillion": 0.45,
      "gdp_share": 2.8,
      "yoy_change_real": null,
      "note": "東協 GDP 占比最高；多年期長期建軍計畫；採購 F-35B"
    },
    {
      "rank_global": 40,
      "name_zh": "印尼",
      "name_en": "Indonesia",
      "expenditure_usd_billion": 12.7,
      "expenditure_twd_trillion": 0.41,
      "gdp_share": 0.9,
      "yoy_change_real": null,
      "note": "東協 GDP 占比最低之一；Prabowo 政府增加採購；天弓三型、F-15EX、Rafale"
    },
    {
      "rank_global": 42,
      "name_zh": "菲律賓",
      "name_en": "Philippines",
      "expenditure_usd_billion": 6.1,
      "expenditure_twd_trillion": 0.195,
      "gdp_share": 1.3,
      "yoy_change_real": null,
      "note": "南海緊張致預算增加；採購 BrahMos 超音速反艦飛彈、Hawker 戰機"
    },
    {
      "rank_global": 45,
      "name_zh": "泰國",
      "name_en": "Thailand",
      "expenditure_usd_billion": 5.7,
      "expenditure_twd_trillion": 0.182,
      "gdp_share": 1.0,
      "yoy_change_real": null,
      "note": "採購 12 架 Gripen E/F；2 艘新巡防艦；柬泰邊境緊張"
    },
    {
      "rank_global": 47,
      "name_zh": "馬來西亞",
      "name_en": "Malaysia",
      "expenditure_usd_billion": 5.0,
      "expenditure_twd_trillion": 0.16,
      "gdp_share": 1.0,
      "yoy_change_real": 2.92,
      "note": "2026 年預算 RM21.2 億令吉、+2.92%；採購防空系統、MRSS 多用途艦"
    }
  ],
  "context": {
    "global_total_2025_usd_billion": 2887,
    "global_total_2025_yoy_real": 2.9,
    "global_gdp_share": 2.5,
    "asia_oceania_total_2025_usd_billion": 681,
    "asia_oceania_yoy_real": 8.1,
    "us_2025_usd_billion": 997,
    "us_yoy_real": -1.6,
    "ukraine_2025_usd_billion": 117,
    "ukraine_gdp_share": 40,
    "russia_2025_usd_billion": 265,
    "russia_gdp_share": 7.5,
    "nato_target_old": 2.0,
    "nato_target_new_2035": 5.0,
    "us_hegseth_asia_proposal": "2025/6 香格里拉對話美國防部長 Hegseth 提議亞洲盟友提升至 GDP 5%"
  },
  "key_observations": [
    {
      "title": "亞太地區整體軍費 +8.1%",
      "content": "2025 年亞太地區軍費達 6,810 億美元，增幅 8.1%，為 2009 年以來最大。主要驅動：中國軍事擴張、北韓飛彈威脅、南海緊張、美方要求盟友分擔。"
    },
    {
      "title": "台灣 GDP 占比 2.1% 已高於日澳菲",
      "content": "台灣 2025 年 GDP 占比 2.1%，高於日本 1.4%、澳洲 SIPRI 計 1.9%、菲律賓 1.3%、印尼 0.9%。若加計特別預算，實質負擔再高。"
    },
    {
      "title": "南韓、新加坡為東亞高占比代表",
      "content": "南韓 2.6%（三軸嚇阻對抗北韓）、新加坡 2.8%（東協最高），兩國皆採長期、多年期軍備計畫，較少以特別預算方式編列。"
    },
    {
      "title": "年增率排名：台灣 +14% 為亞太最高",
      "content": "2025 年實質年增率：台灣 +14.0%（1988 以來最高）、日本 +9.7%、印度 +8.9%、中國 +7.4%、南韓 +2.6%。"
    },
    {
      "title": "東協六國總和才接近全球第 13",
      "content": "新、印、菲、馬、泰、越六國 2024 合計約 420 億美元，若視為單一行為者僅及全球第 13。"
    }
  ]
}